Category : Online Analytics

Key Learnings from Esomar Impact

September 30th, 2011

Esomar Impact was an interesting event. Relevant people, well organized and some of the content was very engaging. Best of which was Marc Lammers the head coach for Dutch National Woman’s Field Hockey Team. It didn’t hurt that the event was held in the lovely city of Amsterdam.

The Key Learnings:

  1. Smart research buyers care less about representation or methodologies and more about results
  2. The common themes in what people are looking for is quality, speed and cost
  3. Also they want their partners to have the courage to make recommendations
  4. Based on research findings, Management consultants are seen two times more credible than research agencies (ad agencies being in the middle)
  5. Clients don’t want long powerpoints, they want summaries, story telling and simplicity
  6. We can all learn a lot from the Dutch national team for Woman’s Field Hockey
  7. To be an Evolutionary Psychologist, you may not have to be a self-absorbed [insert a word of choice here] but it certainly helps

#mrx #esomar #esocong

Tobacco Marketing Genius – Part II

July 21st, 2011

How do you market a product that can’t be marketed? Through warning labels of course.

This brilliant warning label can be now found in ciggy packs in the Hong Kong market. It’s a class example of “things everyone can learn from tobacco marketers”. There are few things that make this an amazing tactic.

1) The image that stands out is that of an youthful beauty and perfect complexion of the woman in the front, thus sending a message which is totally contradictory to the warning text

2) Courtesy of my wonderful head of research Debbie Ko, I’ve learned that Asians respond well to health messages that are related to their collective responsibility (for example becoming a burden to their family) and badly to messages that are related to individual  responsibility

3) In a Greater China market, using such images have a strong element of nostalgia, and even Don Draper loves a bit of nostalgia

4) Similar look n feel (of the woman) was used for decades by the Chinese tobacco industry to advertise cigarettes (who doesn’t love a bit of blush on a woman’s cheek)

lg_cigaretteposter958

While it’s undeniably clear that the tobacco marketers are geniuses, how stupid does the regulator have to be in order for something like this to slip through. Or how corrupt.

Assuming based on the soaring revenues of the big tobacco (minus Philip Morris who went through a series of corporate re-structure) the labels are not stopping people from smoking, or new smokers from picking it up. So in a sense this is positive progress, I’m sure all the non-smokers rather see beautiful Chinese woman in the labels opposed to a malformed fetus.

Now that tobacco ads are gone from F1 Grand Prix (pitstop babes) for good, and all we have left are the tobacco hostess in their short skirts venturing the nights reminding casual smokers and quitters about the delights of cigarettes, it’s refreshing to see more beauty find its way back to tobacco.

Two Things I Learned from a Japanese Teppanyaki Chef

May 29th, 2011

I’ve had about 7000 restaurant meals in my life, counted conservatively. While I will almost always prefer a home-cooked meal if feasible, it’s been an experience from which I’ve gained deep insight in to how the restaurant industry operates. Even more importantly, in receiving services and in customer experience in general.

I realize that after such heavy saturation to any given service, few things are likely to happen.

  • The customer is very hard to be impressed
  • The customer becomes excessively concerned about quality
  • The customer develops an eye for detail

Now back to the restaurant category and towards the promised learnings. At times I eat alone. If you’re eating alone and you wish that the dinner would last a little longer, you know you have something special going on in terms of the customer experience. That leads to my first learning.

“A great customer experience is one that you hope would last a little longer. A bad one is one that you wish would take less time than it does”

Typically people enjoy their meals with a company, and the captivation and the entertainment of the experience comes from time spent with that company. A typical westernized restaurant setting offers only little attraction beyond the food, and in some rare occasions, fabulous service.

Throughout the Asian street kitchens and Japanese restaurants in general, watching the cooking process can be captivating and entertaining. It can also be educating. Last week in Okinawa Japan I had the privilege of having one of the more memorable restaurant meals of my life. Big part of it was my personal Teppanyaki chef. That leads to the third and final learning.

“Do what you love and love what you do. Do it with elegance, deliberation and with a smile on your face”

Every customer experience that I can think of, those where I’m the provider and those where I’m the receiver, work exactly the same way as the Teppanyaki course dinner does. At least in terms of the basic principle of customer service and the right approach to being a customer servant.

When was the last time you wanted a customer experience to last just a little longer?

Why Sentiment Analysis Sucks for Social Media Monitoring

March 31st, 2010

First off, thanks to Seth Grimes for getting so engaged in discussion about this important topic. Before moving on, few relevant references.

The below article is partially in response to: Is Sentiment Analysis an 80% Solution?

The original post that initiated the conversation  why sentiment analysis sucks for social media monitoring (attempt 1)

…which in turn was a response to a discussion which was ongoing at the time Don’t Get Sentimental About Tools When Measuring Attitude.

What’s Sentiment Analysis Good For (in social media monitoring)?

The fundamental flaw in number based positive/negative approach to sentiment analysis is not in the maths, technology or practicality. It is in the fact that it starts from an assumption that people are something they’re not.

Every person’s life tends to happen at the same basic levels. We’re all a person with an idea of this fixed being, which we call me. Then we go about our lifes experiencing things, these we call our first kiss or “auch, I hurt my knee”. Sometimes we feel the need to express these experiences, that is what I’m doing right here, expressing myself.

Screen shot 2010-03-31 at 1.20.52 PM

Each of these is a diluted version of the previous. As a person we feel fixed and we feel ourselves, then within that we have an experience. The way we experience events is entirely depended on our person. For example when someone dents your car, it is entirely up to you how you react in that situation. If you’re indifferent about it, then there is no significant experience. You just take his details and get it fixed. Or you get angry and talk for days about how someone dented your car.

When you take your experiences and put them in to words, they’re further diluted from the actual substance, the richness of human experience. The idea of being able to take human experience and fit it on a scale of 0-100 in terms of positive or negative is ridiculous.

When experiences are verbalized, a natural distortion happens, in a way the experience itself is corrupted by the attempt of limiting its richness to words. What sentiment analysis is trying to do, is to say that it can capture the essence of the expression (experience and person behind it) and record it as a single numeric value.

As a consumer I maybe someone who gets pissed off and expressive about bad experiences, but I’ll be the first to praise you when you redeem yourself. Or I could be someone who never says anything, good or bad. How is this accounted for in the current situation and direction for text analytics? Brands are not looking for instances, but relationships.

While I understand the usefulness of text analytics to answer yes/no questions in a closed domain with good preparation and proper customization, this is a very limited approach. I’m always more interested to know why people preferred that someone guided them personally instead of just giving directions, or how the ones who didn’t get personal guidance felt when they just got directions. The current approach to sentiment analysis at best offers limited solutions to such an approach.

Bottom line is that you can’t classify people, experiences or expressions on a scale of positive or negative. We are not that type of creatures. There is no such a situation that is totally positive or totally negative. Our relationships with brands are no different from the way we interact with life at large. Those relationships hold all the complexities and richness of our personalities, experiences and expressions.

The Human Factor

The fact that people don’t see things similarly in terms of positive or negative is no surprise at all. Classic philosophists knew this thousands of years ago, it is one of the underlying concepts in virtually every religion, philosophy or other system.

We can be affected by so many different things; weather, economics, relationships, time of day, medication. Attributes such as the ones mentioned before are used widely in econometrics to model actual situations in which commerce happens.

To further complicate things, there is the whole dimension of our relationship with ourselves, the way in which we understand and don’t understand our own personas, experiences and expressions.

We’re left with that other approach in which I show 10 different people pictures of 10 angry people and 10 happy people, or I show 10 passionate people and 10 passive people, the situation becomes much more human. We’re that kind of beings, we get angry and happy, then we’re sad. That is the level at which we relate, with each other, with brands and with the world around us.

I’m a big fan of automation and always believed that we should thrive to automate everything we believe machine can do better than us. The rest we leave for ourselves to do. The way net sentiment is utilized in social media monitoring is something I think should be left completely alone. At the level of net sentiment scoring, it is not worth the time of human nor machine.

There is a better solution for both man and the machine in this situation. The fact that something was started 15 years ago in a certain way doesn’t necessarily means it’s the best way. Our job is to make sure that we’re all open for what ever ways may be out there.

We all eventually want the same thing, so defending one’s convictions becomes a slippery slope. In Zen there is a saying: “In the beginner’s mind there exists many possibilities, in expert’s mind exists only few”. After doing one thing for a really long time, I find this to be the most valuable guideline.

So instead of using our time defending the ivory towers of the text analytics industry and where it’s at now, let’s figure out where we can take it together!

In A True Spirit of Debate

Below my responses to some of the arguments made in the post Is Sentiment Analysis an 80% Solution?

Test data about people agreeing on things with 80% accuracy has little to do with how and why a single system (social media monitor technology) has a 20% error margin. It’s like comparing pears to bananas. The way these language systems works is that there is a set of rules as base for everything and there is plenty of secret sauce in all of this.

No more seems the example about InfoGlutton relevant. When it comes to language based systems, success is all about teaching the system to work in that given environment (defining the rules). When you have a domain specific system (restaurants) with a limited number of entities (below 100k), continuously optimizing the system is an option. But when you work in an open generic domain (the internet) and you have virtually unlimited number of entities which produce indefinite amount of unique content, tweaking the system becomes very problematic. Think of the difference of learning the 300 most common words in Spanish versus internalizing all great philosophies in their original languages.

All this being said, often when you start looking things from two extremes, you’ll eventually find the golden middle way most suiting. My hope is that we can do that by working together on directions that make most sense for everyone.

Thanks so much for the chance to have this discussion Seth, and thanks everyone for taking the time to read this through.

Sentiment – Dirty Little Question Nobody is Asking

December 28th, 2009

According to some of the players in the social media monitoring field, sentiment analysis works and customers are happy with it. One question I haven’t heard though, is how does sentiment drive commerce. Does negative sentiment mean weaker commerce, positive stronger and so on. It’s a new game, so I understand that there is no numbers (yet) but what I don’t understand is how the industry has completely ignored the whole topic. After all, social media monitoring is marketing, and marketing has truly only one purpose at the end of the day.

To Drive Commerce (or not)

Corporations at this level are very focused with share value. So what better way to look at the commercial value of sentiment than comparing it to stock quote over same time.

According to one of the leaders in the space, Sysomos, the three brands with most negative sentiment around them in 2009 were:

  1. McDonalds
  2. Marlboro (Philip Morris)
  3. Toyota

While the three brands with the most positive buzz around them were:

  1. Samsung
  2. Nokia
  3. Intel

Last year was a tough year for everyone, the sample size is ridiculously small and to make things even worse, the companies are from different categories. Samsung is not traded in NYSE so I replaced it with IBM, who by the way is the biggest winner on the list. Another big winner, Intel has been very open about how they play. Or at least Michael Brito has, thanks! On the other hand, it looks like Nokia’s stock could have done better.

STOCK QUOTES FOR YEAR-TO-DATE FROM GOOGLE FINANCE

Screen shot 2009-12-28 at 9.23.48 PM

The official results for this little test:

  1. IBM +55.14%
  2. Intel +38.67%
  3. Toyota +29.75%
  4. Philip Morris +12.39
  5. McDonalds +1.98%
  6. Nokia -18.07%

It’s well worth noting that both IBM and Intel were coming from their 10 year lows at the switch of 2009, so a hefty rise for such juggernauts would not come as surprise.

This whole ‘research’ I have just conducted, is obviously complete BS and should not be taken seriously by anyone. But one thing it does well (I hope), is that it speaks loudly the question we all should be asking:

“What’s sentiment really worth?”

Also I want to put out the challenge to Sysomos, who obviously has this data from 2009:

It would be great to see this same test run category vs. category with a much larger dataset. It took about 5 minutes to get the data from Google Finance, and another 10 minutes to write this ‘report’ on the ‘findings’.

If it comes to that, we’d love to do this together with you and extend our helping hand. After all, since we’re in the insights business, we should do what we reasonably can. Things start to get really interesting, when we can run this test year to year. I bet a lot of this stuff doesn’t show instantly.

Analytics and Design

October 14th, 2009

Big part of design is minimizing and simplifying. Taking something complex (like data) and taking everything extra away from it. Just like if you’re looking at data. Design is everywhere, not just in the product development and advertising. Essentially everything has a design to it. Revenue model is a type of design. Mission statement is a design. Awesome design almost exclusively is something complex that wonderful folks were able to simplify.

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Meet Your New Internet, Courtesy of Adobe Powered by Omniture

September 15th, 2009

In the next 10 years internet is going to change dramatically. After yesterday it’s even clearer than before that Adobe has a stronghold on it, regardless of how the web pans out. We’ll see the internet becoming smarter, more social and of course more reliable. Now Adobe has the toolset to drive that change on its own terms. And it’s the only company in the world who really can say that.

Putting together a platform that combines production and management, analytics and optimization is a huge step forward. Imagine the designer who can now see a/b test results in matter of minutes without having to work for it. Or business application developer getting the insights from all previous applications before starting to build a new one. All within the platform they already learned to love. The proposition of having instant feedback for your actions before and after taking them is a powerful one. An unified online business platform will have the chance of delivering that.
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